Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 23.193005 26.384929 29.819372 33.785087 38.233503 43.064813 48.704791
2024-12-29 18.326922 22.624888 27.599336 33.764677 41.182318 49.799626 60.548987
2025-01-05 16.370240 21.282398 27.234781 34.945276 44.632247 56.359467 71.589099
2025-01-12 14.185421 19.328174 25.823826 34.578224 46.009216 60.362074 79.673745
2025-01-19 11.973205 17.017239 23.629292 32.860700 45.333143 61.504586 83.948493
2025-01-26 11.066564 16.318424 23.428774 33.663486 47.903451 66.880762 93.923815
2025-02-02 10.329655 15.756437 23.324350 34.525399 50.531097 72.398035 104.309213
2025-02-09 9.379696 14.784381 22.539998 34.330418 51.613866 75.792114 111.882600
2025-02-16 8.481679 13.796048 21.633340 33.855678 52.211192 78.469743 118.507966
2025-02-23 7.862445 13.169316 21.196914 34.015199 53.700264 82.445324 127.137068
2025-03-02 7.369069 12.690855 20.936745 34.399858 55.513007 86.941674 136.701750
2025-03-09 6.894539 12.197702 20.607691 34.636096 57.082541 91.115728 145.941302
2025-03-16 6.342838 11.541619 19.987786 34.393317 57.927471 94.292300 153.926868
2025-03-23 5.949418 11.119371 19.713679 34.683524 59.623759 98.853579 164.269535
2025-03-30 5.745014 11.004219 19.932440 35.785247 62.671542 105.650633 178.408804
2025-04-06 5.305039 10.430079 19.326407 35.446233 63.303632 108.596597 186.494608
2025-04-13 4.675911 9.454230 17.948738 33.677174 61.406382 107.308629 187.586307
2025-04-20 4.505411 9.321156 18.050773 34.502376 63.981298 113.496399 201.272329
2025-04-27 4.354180 9.211220 18.183425 35.382720 66.686785 120.008432 215.765696
2025-05-04 4.064966 8.806125 17.741885 35.183731 67.458472 123.251322 224.823833
2025-05-11 3.762799 8.348865 17.168417 34.697934 67.674985 125.526699 232.286618
2025-05-18 3.564751 8.087444 16.949496 34.861172 69.074756 129.914324 243.597176
2025-05-25 3.407611 7.898032 16.856201 35.254643 70.912692 135.143449 256.593094